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Position paper - CenSES 1/2015
2. Analysing framework
2.1.Methodology
Energy service demands of residential, service, industry (incl. offshore) and transportation are calculated in the
first step. The demand of energy services is calculated as an activity multiplied by an indicator. Secondly, the
energy systemmodel TIMES-Norway is used to analyse the consumption of energy carriers. Alternative scenarios
are analysed to illustrate the uncertainty of the reference path. These include different developments of the
industry, alternative transportation projections, implementation of energy efficiency measures, alternative
population projections and alternative energy prices (see description in section “Scenarios”).
The base year of the analyses is 2010 and the analysed horizon is to 2050. The focus is on end-use demand, both
of energy services and energy carriers, while energy production and trade is additional information. Projection
of both energy carriers and important parameters are compared to statistics. Particularly the parameter
projections are based on past development and used assumptions rest on considerations of present statistics.
The reference path is based on the middle alternative of the population projections of Statistics Norway 2012
[5].
Energy by end-use such as heating and electricity specific purposes is an important input but the statistics is of
poorer quality than the statistics of energy carrier consumptions. This work is based on an evaluation of present
information and discussion of the best available energy by end-use to use in this study.
Energy efficiency is included in the reference path through renovation of buildings and improved efficiencies of
end-use demand (such as heat pumps, new, more efficient vehicles etc.). Investments in other energy efficiency
measures such as heat recovery, improved core processes, behavioural measures etc. are not included in the
reference path. An alternative analysis of future energy demand is done with possibilities to invest in profitable
energy efficiency measures.
Figure 4 Principal methodology sketch
3. Analysing framework
3.1. Methodology
Energy service demands of residential, service, industry
(incl. offshore) and transportation are calculated in the
first step. The demand of energy services is calculated
as an activity multiplied by an indicator. Secondly,
the energy system model TIMES-Norway is used to
analyse the consumption of energy carriers. Alternative
scenarios are analysed to illustrate the uncertainty of the
reference path. These include different developments
of the industry, alternative transportation projections,
implementation of energy efficiency measures,
alternative population projections and alternative
energy prices (see description in section “Scenarios”).
The base year of the analyses is 2010 and the analysed
horizon is to 2050. The focus is on end-use demand,
both of energy services and energy carriers, while
energy production and trade is additional information.
Projection of both energy carriers and important
parameters are compared to statistics. Particularly the
parameter projections are based on past development
and used assumptions rest on considerations of present
statistics. The reference path is based on the middle
alternative of the population projections of Statistics
Norway 2012 [5].
Energy by end-use such as heating and electricity
specific purposes is an important input but the statistics
is of poorer quality than the statistics of energy carrier
consumptions. This work is based on an evaluation of
present information and discussion of the best available
energy by end-use to use in this study.
Energy efficiency is included in the reference path
through renovation of buildings and improved
efficiencies of end-use demand (such as heat pumps,
new, more efficient vehicles etc.). Investments in other
energy efficiency measures such as heat recovery,
improved core processes, behavioural measures etc.
are not included in the reference path. An alternative
analysis of future energy demand is done with
possibilities to invest in profitable energy efficiency
measures.
Figure 4
Principal methodology sketch