8 / 36
Position Paper: CenSES Energy demand projections towards 2050
8
2. Introduction and scope
The development of energy demand is a key driver
of the future energy system. Many user partners and
research partners of CenSES are dependent on energy
demand projections in their work with energy systems
analyses and planning. The type of projection needed
differs e.g. concerning geographical area, energy
carriers, demand sectors and time levels. The lack of
an official Norwegian energy demand projection with
a transparent view of assumptions is a drawback for
many partners. A common interest for energy demand
projections and the need of common assumptions
in comparative analyses of future energy systems is
identified within CenSES. The common projection can
be used as a basis for new analysis in future research
projects and in the work with CenSES scenarios.
The last public energy demand projection was
presented in 2006 [1] while later governmental energy
demand projections are concealed in other foresight
documents such as the National budgets where some
data are public but most of the assumptions are not.
Some data on electricity forecasts are available, but
no data of total or useful energy demand. In [1] the
electricity consumption increased by about 50%.
“Perspektivmeldingen 2011” projected the electricity
demand in 2050 to increase by 33% [2], a considerable
lower growth than the NOU five years earlier. Common
for the governmental work is the use of general
equilibrium models, while the work in this paper is
based on a technology rich bottom-up approach.
Energy demand projections with similar models have
resulted in increased electricity demand in 2050 of
3-18% (with and without energy efficiency measures)
which is significantly lower than the macro-economic
model results [3]. It would strengthen the studies of
future energy use if assumptions and background data
are public available. It would then be possible to discuss
and develop alternative paths and thereby improve
the knowledge of how to achieve a sustainable future
energy system.
The objective of this work is to present a common
long-term energy demand projection with a detailed
description of major assumptions. It is not a prediction,
but a projection, with assumptions based on discussions
among the following CenSES partners:
• Statnett
• Statkraft
• NVE
• Enova
• Transnova
• Miljødirektoratet
• Vestlandsforskning
• SINTEF Energi
• SINTEF Teknologi og Samfunn
• Universitetet i Oslo, TIK-senteret
• Institute for Energy Technology
The analyses are carried out by Institute for Energy
Technology (IFE) in 2013-2014. The authors have full
responsibility for the results and conclusions presented
in this paper.
This paper presents the main parts of the energy
demand projections. More details of the work can be
found in the report [4] and, upon request, the authors
can send projection data electronically. The analyses
framework, i.e. the methodology, scenarios and
assumptions, is presented first in this paper. It is followed
by presentations of energy demand projections by end-
use sector divided in the residential, service, industry
and transport sectors and a summary of total energy
use and electricity production. Finally, a discussion of
the energy demand projections can be found in the last
chapter.