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Position paper - CenSES 1/2015
Position Paper: CenSES Energy demand projections towards 2050
3
1. Executive summary
As opposed to most other European countries, Norway has no official, public energy projection. We have
therefore developed an energy projection towards 2050, with openness to data and detailed discussions of
parameters and resulting energy demand. It is not a
prediction
, but a
projection
, with assumptions based on
discussions among the CenSES partners. The objective is to have a platform for further analyses within CenSES
and other interested users, were assumptions can be openly presented. The intention is to develop alternative
paths based on future discussions, as a way of improving the knowledge of how to achieve a sustainable future
energy system.
The analysis gives an understanding of the high uncertainties about future energy demand. Four scenarios are
presented, all presenting a possible future, and the total energy use differs with about 65 TWh in 2050. The
electricity consumption differs with approximately 45 TWh from the lowest to the highest use in the four
scenarios. Main parameters varying in the scenarios are the levels of industry activity and energy efficiency
implementation as presented in Table 1. The reference scenario is based on an industry activity at the present
level and minor implementation of energy efficiency.
A two-step methodology is used where the demand of energy services is calculated first. This is input to the
energy system model TIMES-Norway that calculates the energy consumption. The calculated use of total energy
and different energy carriers highly depend on the assumptions used in the analyses. The demand calculations
are based on the development of drivers and indicators of each demand sector. A major driver is the population
projection that is based on the medium national growth of Statistics Norway 2012. The assumptions are
discussed with CenSES-partners, and the authors have full responsibility for the results and conclusions
presented in this paper.
In the reference path, final energy consumption increases by 30 TWh to about 250 TWh in 2050. The increased
electricity consumption is 21 TWh to 134 TWh in 2050. Implementation of profitable energy efficiency measures
can reduce the final energy consumption by 4 TWh in total while the electricity use increase by 7 TWh (-2% and
+6% respectively). In total, profitable energy efficiency measures including heat pumps can reduce the energy
consumption in 2050 by about 23 TWh. Illustrations of some of these scenarios are included in this paper as
“stories” describing literary how possible futures might become.
Table 1 Overview of analysed scenarios and the change in demand/energy/electricity use in 2050 compared to 2010
Scenario Energy
Efficiency
Implemen
tation
Industry
activity
Exogenous
energy prices
Change in 2050 compared to 2010
Stationary energy
demand
Energy use
Electricity use
REF
Small
Present
Constant at
present level
+18 TWh (+11%)
+30 TWh (+13%)
+21 TWh (+18%)
REF-EE
High
-4 TWh (-2%)
+7 TWh (+6%)
LOW
High
Low
Increasing
+3 TWh (+2%)
-23 TWh (-10%)
-9 TWh (-8%)
HIGH
Small
High
Constant at
present level
+35 TWh (+22%)
+43 TWh (+19%)
+37 TWh (+33%)
FROZEN
No
Present
+18 TWh (+11%)
+52 TWh (+23%)
+28 TWh (+25%)
1. Executive summary
As opposed to most other European countries, Norway
has no fficial, public energy projectio . We hav
r f r developed an energy projection towards
2050, with openness to data and detailed iscussions
of parameters and resulting energy demand. It is not a
prediction, but a projection, with assumptions based on
discussions among the CenSES partners. The objective
is to have a platform for further analyses within CenSES
and other interested users, where assumptions can
be openly presented. The intention is to develop
alternative paths based on future discussions, as a
way of improvi g the knowledge of how to achieve a
sustainable future energy system.
The analysis gives an understanding of the high
uncertainties about future energy demand. Four
scenarios are presented, all presenting a possible
future, and the total energy use differs with about 65
TWh in 2050. The electricity consumption differs with
approximately 45 TWh from the lowest to the highest
use in the four scenarios. Main parameters varying in the
scenarios are the levels of industry activity and energy
effici ncy implementation as presented in Table 1. The
reference s e ario is based on an industry activity at
the present level and minor imple entation of energy
efficiency.
A two-step methodology is used where the demand
of energy services is calculated first. This is input to the
energy system model TIMES-Norway that calculates
the energy consumption. The calc lated use of total
energy and different energy carriers highly depend
on the assumptions used in the analyses. The demand
calculations are based on the development of drivers
and indicators of each demand sector. A major driver
is the population projection that is based on the
medium national growth of Statistics Norway 2012. The
assumptions are discussed with CenSES-partners, and
t authors have full responsibility for the results a d
conclusions presented in this p per.
In the reference path, final energy consumption
increases by 30 TWh to about 250 TWh in 2050. The
increased electricity consumption is 21 TWh to 134 TWh
in 2050. Implementation of profitable energy efficiency
measures can reduce the final energy consumption by 4
TWh in total while the electricity use increase by 7 TWh
(-2% and +6% respectively). In total, profitable energy
efficiency measures including heat pumps can reduce
the energy c nsumption in 2050 by about 23 TWh.
Illustrations of some of these scenarios are included in
this paper as “s ories” describing literary how possible
fut
might become.
l
Overview of analysed cenarios nd the chang in demand/en rgy/electricity use in 2050 compared to 2010