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Position paper - CenSES 1/2015
Position Paper: CenSES Energy demand projections towards 2050
renewable electricity production without a need for net electricity import. If in addition p
implement profitable energy efficiency measures the increased energy consumption of the
can be held at the same level as in the reference path.
The low activity scenario assumes higher energy prices with an increased electricity exp
Norwegian industrial production. It also includes implementation of profitable energy effic
less transportation demand. In this case, the final energy consumption in 2050 is calculated
in 2010 and the electricity consumption to 9 TWh less. With the targets of renewable en
gives a huge export of electricity with a maximum of more than 60 TWh in 2030. Political
measures have an important role in how future energy consumption will actually develop.
of Norwegian renewable energy to high quality products combined with a strong focus on
result in a moderate increase in energy consumption, mainly renewable electricity. This de
strong business policy along with a willingness to improve domestic energy efficiency tar
solutions.
Figure 2 Total energy use per sector; statistics 1975-2010
and projection REF 2010-2050 (TWh/year)
Figure 3 Energy use per capita and
statistics 1975-2010 and projection
(MWh/capita and year)
es ted h r . The ene gy consumpti n per capita is
e as the electricity use per capita decrease by almost
sumption in buildings is the population development.
nd of industry two alternative scenarios are analysed.
Norwegian production of energy intensive products
ofitable energy measures are implemented and the
rgy consumption is calculated to increase by 43 TWh
This high electricity demand can be met by Norwegian
lectricity import. If in addition policies contribute to
ased energy consumption of the high activity scenario
ith an increased electricity export and a decreased
ntation of profitable energy efficiency measures and
onsumption in 2050 is calculated to 23 TWh less than
ith the targets of renewable energy production, this
e than 60 TWh in 2030. Political decisions and policy
sumption will actually develop. Domestic processing
ombined with a strong focus on energy efficiency can
nly renewable electricity. This development implies a
e domestic energy efficiency targets and low-carbon
Figure 3 Energy use per capita and year per sector;
Figure 2
Total energy use per sector;
statistics 1975-2010 and projection
REF 2010-2050 (TWh/year)
Figure 3
Energy use per capita and
year per sector; statistics 1975-2010
and projection REF 2010-2050 (MWh/
capita and year)
demand of industry two alt rnative scenarios are
analysed. In the high activity scenario the development
of increased Norwegian production of energy intensive
products are included. If this happens at the same time
as no profitable energy measures are implemented and
the transportation dem nd continues t increase, the
final energy consumption is calculated to increase by 43
TWh and electricity use increase by 37 TWh compared
to 2010. This high electricity demand can be met by
Norwegian r n wable electricity production wit out
a need for net electricity import. If in additio policies
contrib te to implement profitable nergy efficiency
measures the increased energy consumption of the high
activity scenario can be held at the same level as in the
reference path.
The low activity scenario assumes higher energy prices
with an increased electricity export and a decreased
Norwegian industrial production. It also includes
implementation of profitable energy efficiency
measures and less transportation demand. In this case,
the final energy consumption in 2050 is calculated to 23
TWh less than in 2010 and the electricity consumption
to 9 TWh less. With he targets of renewable n rgy
production, this gives a huge export of electricity with
a maximum of more than 60 TWh in 2030. Political
decisions and policy measures have an important role in
how future energy consumption will actually develop.
Domestic pro essing of Norwegian renewable energy
to high quality products combined with a strong focus
on energy efficiency can result in a moderate increase
in energy consumption, mainly renewable electricity.
This develo ment implies a trong business policy
along with a willingness to improve domestic energy
efficiency targets and low-carbon solutions.