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Position Paper: CenSES Energy demand projections towards 2050
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2.3.Assumptions
Different energy prices used as input to TIMES-Norway are presented in Table 3. The energy taxes of 2014 are
assumed to be constant until 2050. From 2020 the tax of biodiesel is assumed to be the same as for petroleum
diesel. TIMES-Norway has a possibility to invest in 2
nd
generation biodiesel production from 2025 and this product
can be used in pure biodiesel vehicles. Imported biodiesel may only be used for mixing with petroleum diesel.
Financial support to specific technologies is modelled with the present level until 2020, and is then removed.
Zero-emission vehicles are exempted from nonrecurring tax and VAT until 2020 and then get the same taxes as
other vehicles. The nonrecurring tax is assumed to be calculated based on the same principles as today until
2050, resulting in a low investment cost of cars using 2
nd
generation bio fuels. The use of electricity for heating
is restricted in accordance with the building regulation code of 2010.
Table 3 Energy prices (incl. energy taxes but not VAT), bio energy potentials and rates used as input to TIMES-Norway
(possible investments in brackets)
All scenarios but LOW Scenario LOW
Potential /Capacity
Other
2016-2050
2050
2020
2050
NOK 2005/MWh
NOK/MWh
General discount rate
4%
VAT households
25%
Hydro and wind potentials
- Hydro
- Wind, onshore
- Wind, offshore
33.8 TWh/year
41 TWh/year
10.3 GW
33.8 TWh/year
41 TWh/year
10.3 GW
Export/Import (+new investment)
Electricity trade
-
SE1
- SE2
- SE3
- FIN
- RUS
- DK
- NL
- DE
- UK
273
245
245
245
245
255
312
259
407
441
441
441
441
441
469
496
484
591
600/700 MW
1300/850 MW
2095/2145 MW
100/100 MW
0/56 MW
1000 (+700) MW
700/700 MW
(1000) MW
(1000) MW
Electricity certificate price
165
0
Grid fee
- Industry, high voltage
- Industry, low voltage, firm power
- Industry, low voltage, occasional
power
- Tertiary sector, firm power
- Tertiary sector, occasional power
- Residential sector
25
144
59
189
101
229
25
144
59
189
101
229
Petroleum fuels
-
Light fuel oil, buildings
- Light fuel oil, industry
- Heavy fuel oil
- Diesel for transportation
- Gasoline
786
498
492
939
1129
1132
815
802
1191
1332
unlimited
unlimited
Bio fuels
- forest chips
- wood logs
- by-products from industry
- fire wood
- pellets, imported
- municipal waste
184-223
150
0-187
107-207
400
250-303
150
0-253
181-281
476
3.2 TWh/y
0 TWh/y
3.9 TWh/y
8.3 TWh/y
unlimited
2.6 TWh/y
4.2 TWh/y
8.6 TWh/y
3.9 TWh/y
8.3 TWh/y
unlimited
2.6 TWh/y
3.3. Assumptions
Different energy prices used as input to TIMES-Norway
are presented in Table 3. The energy taxes of 2014 are
assumed to be constant until 2050. From 2020 the tax
of biodies l is assumed to b the same as for petroleum
diesel. TIMES-Norway has a possibility to invest in
2nd generation biodiesel production from 2025 a d
this product can be used in pure biodiesel vehicles.
Imported biodiesel may only be used for mixing
with petroleum diesel. Financial su port t specific
technologies i modelled with the present level until
2 , and is then rem ved.
Zero-emission vehicles are exempted from nonrecurring
tax and VAT until 2020 and then get the same taxes
as other vehicles. The nonrecurring tax is assumed to
be calcula based on the same principl as today
until 2050, resulting in a low invest nt cost of cars
using 2nd g nerati n bio fuels. The use of electricity
for heating is restricted in accordance with the building
regulation code of 2010.
le 3
Energy prices (incl. e ergy taxes but not VAT), bi energy potentials and ra s used as i put to TIMES-Norway (possible investments
in brackets)