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Position Paper: CenSES Energy demand projections towards 2050
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More energy-efficient residential buildings in the future?
by Marianne Ryghaug and Knut Holtan Sørensen, NTNU
For a long period of time, efforts to improve the energy
quality of residential buildings seemed to have little
impact on the consumption of energy. This was probably
a result of people using larger part of their buildings,
due to increased overall energy comfort. Moreover,
the average area of dwellings grew. During the last
10-15 years, it seems the trend has turned. The average
area of dwellings is levelling out, while in most cases,
all areas in the building are already utilised. Energy
efficiency measures are having an effect, even if it is
fairly moderate. Another important point is that the way
people act within a building, in terms of heating, use of
energy-demanding equipment, showering, and so on,
varies substantially. This means that increased levels of
energy quality may have little effect if the actions of the
habitants counter this. Or, the reverse, if routines with
respect to energy consumption change, like reduced
indoor temperature, energy consumption may be
reduced without any changes in the energy quality. The
interaction between the energy quality of a residential
building and the behaviour of the residents is complex
and unfortunately not well understood.
Reference scenario – what happens if we remain on
the same path?
Remaining on the same path implies a fairly constant
effort of engaging with energy efficiency as part of the
efforts to renovate existing buildings, while new
buildings are constructed with increased energy
standards. There are some impacts from these activities
in terms of reduced energy consumption. These
impacts may be reinforced through a tendency towards
increased concern about climate issues that slowly spills
over into some reduction in the use of energy. On the
other hand, population growth due to immigration will
continue and will be the most influential parameter.
It is believed that the population of Norway will
increase by 38 % by 2050, and this will represent a
demand for more residential buildings even if the
current trend of urbanisation will contribute to reduced
average area of dwellings. Since population growth
and urbanisation means a future demand for more
new buildings the ratio of new and old buildings may
change so that the average energy quality is increased.
This, together with uncertainties regarding transport,
introduces uncertainties also in the reference scenario.
Nevertheless, because of population growth, energy
consumption is expected to grow also in the reference
scenario.
Climate mitigation scenario – on the path towards
reductions
Current climate policy in Norway aims at making
mitigation efforts largely unnoticeable to the public.
This may change if a larger share of emission cuts is to
be taken in Norway. According to our studies, there is a
substantial, but latent willingness to engage in energy
saving activities if this is made a collective obligation
4.1.3. Story – residential