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Position Paper: CenSES Energy demand projections towards 2050
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4.3.3. Story – Industry
Can power-intensive industry increase energy demand?
by Olav Wicken, UiO
‘High activity’ industry scenario
Under the high activity scenario, industrial power
consumption will increase by 17 TWh from the current
level. Some investment plans have already been made.
Hydro will build a pilot plant for a new aluminium
production process at Karmøy, with a plan to follow up
with a full-scale plant before 2030. In the high activity
scenario we expect that other aluminium factories, as
well as other energy-intensive industries (basic metals,
chemical production), will expand and increase their
power consumption. We also expect new energy-
intensive industries (data centres) to be developed, and
that the energy consumption of other industries will
increase significantly. In addition, we have assumed that
the electrification of the offshore sector will intensify,
and that today’s industries will not experience plant
closures.
Implicit in the scenario is a different development going
forward than we have experienced in recent decades.
The industry consumption increased between mid-
1980s and the turn of the millennium by 10TWh. Since
then the consumption has remain at the same level.
What would it take for the high activity scenario to be
realized? The two main user sectors are the offshore
sector and energy-intensive industries.
Electrification of the offshore sector will require 5
TWh of power from the central grid. This involves that
in addition to the plants decided to be fully or partly
connected to the grid (Troll A, Kollsnes, Valhall, Goliat,
Gjøa, Martin Linge, Ormen Lange and Snøhvit), also
Snøhvit/Melkøya will become fully connected. Also
electrification of Utsira is included in the scenario. This
does not necessarily reflect increased consumption, but
would be a transition from fossil-based power (gas) on
platforms to renewable power from the central power
grid. Since the cost of connecting offshore installations
to the power grid is greater than local power generation,
the industry has by and large met electrification
proposals with reluctance. This is illustrated by the
decision making process relating to electrification of
Utsira which clearly shows that increased electrification
of the oil and gas industry is dependent on government
regulations and policy requirements for new industrial
fields to be linked to the regular power grid.