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Position Paper: CenSES Energy demand projections towards 2050
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3.3.Industry sector
3.3.1. Energy service demand
The future Norwegian industrial energy demand is very uncertain and depends on several factors outside the
scope of this work (e.g. global demand of important products such as primary metals, prices of raw materials and
products, international competition etc.). Industry demand is highly dependent on a small number of decisions
with major impact on total Norwegian energy use. The reference path is therefore in principle based on
assumptions of constant activities and indicators of all industrial sectors (measured in ton or similar physical
production units). An increase of monetary activities combined with an equal decrease of the indicator, results
in the same energy demand. Close downs of plants or production increases carried out or decided up to 2014
are included in the projection. Recently have the decisions of the pilot plant at Karmøy and the electrification of
Utsira contributed to an increased electricity consumption of 2 - 3 TWh towards 2030, but this is not yet included
in the reference path. Investments in energy efficiency measures are not possible in the reference path, but in
the REF-EE scenario. In all analyses it is possible to invest in energy efficient heating plants such as heat pumps.
To illustrate the high degree of uncertainty of the industrial development, two alternate scenarios are analysed.
A strong focus on industry development in combination with constant energy prices at the present level is the
basis for the HIGH activity scenario. Lower industrial activities in combination with higher energy prices are
analysed in the LOW activity scenario. The key assumptions of the industry scenarios are described in Table 8
and the electricity specific demand is presented in Figure 11.
Compared to the present specific electricity demand, the reference path will increase the demand by 3.5 TWh in
2020 and by 1.7 TWh from 2030 to 2050. The reference scenario includes power from grid to some offshore
activities. The High activity scenario will increase the demand by 8 TWh in 2020 and more than 16 TWh from
2030. This scenario assumes increased production of energy intensive products such as aluminium and a high
electrification of the offshore activities. In the Low activity scenario (with high energy prices) the demand
decreases by 10 TWh from 2040. In this scenario, the power from grid to offshore activities will decrease from
the present level and be zero in the middle of the analysing period. It also includes the closing down of more
pulp & paper industries as well as some primary metal production.
Table 8 Key assumptions of the industrial scenarios
REFerence path
HIGH activity scenario
LOW activity scenario
Aluminium production
Increased production at
Hydro Sunndal
- Pilot plant Hydro Karmøy
- New plant Hydro Karmøy
Other metal production
and chemical industry
Close down of REC,
Becromal in 2011-2012
Additional new production
Close down of metal
production plants
Pulp & paper
Close down of Tofte, Follum,
Moss, Hunsfos, Folla in
2011-2013
Close down of several pulp
& paper plants
Petroleum activities
Power from grid to Troll A,
Kollsnes, Valhall, Goliat,
Gjøa, Martin Linge, Ormen
Lange, Snøhvit
- Melkøya/Snøhvit power
from grid supply total
demand and a new train 2
- Utsira – power from grid
Decreased power from grid
to offshore petroleum
activities
Other industry
New industrial activity
Decreased activities of other
industry
Electricity specific
demand compared to
2010
+3.5 TWh in 2020
+1.7 TWh in 2030 - 2050
+8 TWh in 2020
+16 TWh in 2030
+17 TWh in 2050
-0.4 TWh in 2020
-4 TWh in 2030
-10 TWh in 2040
4.3. Industry sector
4.3.1. Energy service demand
The future Norwegian industrial energy demand is very
uncertain and depends on several factors outside the
scope of this work (e.g. global demand of important
products such as primary metals, prices of raw materials
and products, international competition etc.). Indus ry
demand is highly dependent on a small number of
decisions with major impact on total Norw gian energy
use. The referen e path is therefore in principle ba ed
on assumptions of constant activities and indicators
of all industrial sectors (measured in ton or similar
physical production units). An increase of monetary
activities combined with an equal decrease of the
indicator, results in the same energy demand. Close
downs of plants or production increases carried out
r decided up to 2014 are included in the pr jection.
Rece tly have the deci ions of the ilot pla t at Karmøy
nd the electrification of Utsira contributed to an
increased electricity consumptio of 2 - 3 TWh towards
2030, but this is not yet included in the ference
path. Investments in energy efficiency measures are
not possible in the reference path, but in the REF-EE
scenario. In all analyses it is possible to invest in energy
efficient heati g plants such as heat pumps.
To illu trate the high degree of uncer ainty of the
industrial development, two alternate scenari s are
Table 8
Ke ssumptions of the industrial cenarios
analysed. A strong focus on industry development in
combination with constant energy prices at the present
level is the basis for the HIGH activity scenario. Lower
industrial activities in combination with higher en rgy
prices are analysed in the LOW activity scen rio. The key
as umptions of the i dustry cenarios ar described i
Tabl 8 and the electricity specific demand is pre nted
in Figure 11.
Compared to the present specific electricity demand,
the reference path will increase the demand by 3.5
TWh in 2020 and by 1.7 TWh from 2030 to 2050. The
reference scenario includes power from grid to some
offshore activities. The High activity scenario will
increase the demand by 8 TWh in 2020 and more than
16 TWh from 2030. This s n rio assumes incr ased
production of e ergy intensive products such as
aluminium and a high electrification of th offshore
activities. In the Low activity scenario (with high energy
prices) the demand decreases by 10 TWh from 2040. In
this scenario, the power from grid to offshore activities
will decrease from the present level and be zero in the
middle of the analysing period. It also i cludes the
closing down of more pulp and pa er industries as well
as some p imary metal production.