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Position Paper: CenSES Energy demand projections towards 2050
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4.2. Service sector
4.2.1. Energy service demand
In this work, the primary and tertiary sectors and the
construction sector is gathered in one sector called
“service” for simplicity.
The projection of energy service demand (E) of non-
residential buildings is calculated as building area (A)
multiplied by specific energy service demand (I):
E = A * I = building area (m²) * specific energy service
demand (kWh/m²) =
A
new
* I
TEK10
+ A
refurbished
* I
refurbished
+ A
existing
* I
existing
The future area of non-residential buildings is calculated
as:
A = A
2010
* population growth * intensity factor
where the intensity factor is the annual area growth per
capita. The last 14 years this intensity factor has been in
average 1.6 for all subsectors where area is a relevant
parameter. This factor is assumed to decrease linearly to
1.0 in 2025 and remain at that level until 2050.
Subsectors of the service sector where area is not a
relevant parameter are calculated as the energy demand
of the base year multiplied by the population growth.
The energy service demand by end-use is an
important premise for calculation of future energy
demand. The input used for the present calculations
are based on building regulations, statistics of total
energy consumption and areas and the data used are
presented in Table 7. A more detailed discussion of the
assumptions and calculations can be found in [4].
The total area of non-residential building will increase
from about 90 mill. m² in 2010 to about 133 mill. m²
in 2050 with these assumptions. The annual new
build rate is then in average 2.5% in the beginning of
the analysing period declining to 0.7% in 2050. The
energy service demand of service will based on these
assumptions increase from about 35 TWh in 2010 to 42
TWh in 2050, see Figure 9. The reference path includes
energy efficiency improvements from renovations and
estimated effects of the directives of energy labelling
of appliances and lighting. The energy service demand
increases by 18% in the reference path. Energy efficiency
improvements reduce the demand by 4 TWh in 2050 in
the reference path. If the population projection instead
of following the middle path of Statistic Norway will
develop as in the high or low projections, the energy
service demand is calculated to be 25% higher or 16%
lower than the reference path in 2050, as presented to
the right in Figure 9.
4.2.2. Energy consumption
The energy service demand of the service sector was
analysed with TIMES-Norway resulting in a demand
of energy carriers and use of different end-use
technologies. The energy consumption is calculated to
increase by 7 TWh to 36 TWh in 2050 in the reference
path and of this, 26 TWh is electricity. The development
of total energy as well as electricity from 1970 to 2012
(statistics) compared to calculated future energy use
towards 2050 is presented in Figure 10. The population
growth is considerable higher than the increase in both
total energy and electricity use. The indicators “energy
per capita” and “electricity per capita” both decreases
towards 2050, more than in the past. Analyses with
the possibility to invest in energy efficiency measures
decrease the total energy use by 3 TWh in 2050.