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Position paper - CenSES 1/2015
How do we get to the High Activity Scenario?
The transportation system consists of three interlocking
subsystems. The energy system delivers fuel; the means
of transport system provides cars, and the infrastructure
system enables us to get around. All these subsystems
need to change dramatically if we are to achieve High
Activity. We have to shift to renewable energy - this is
possible. We need to create electric and biodiesel cars
- also possible. We need to create an infrastructure for
charging EVs and refuelling biodiesel everywhere - also
possible. We’re not asking for the moon here.
It could be harder to alter the behaviour of people in
these systems. Fossil-based energy companies must
rethink or be replaced, which they probably will not do
without a fight. Automakers must stop producing petrol
cars and concentrate on making new cars. Okay, they’re
on their way, but they’re still earning enough on the
sale of petrol and diesel cars that they will push back as
long as possible. The government needs to implement
measures to facilitate this transition. The political
wrangling about the continuation of the incentive
scheme for EVs is an indication that the transition won’t
be a shoe-in. Last but not least, as motorists we have
to choose electric and biodiesel cars when we seek out
dealers. As creatures of habit, satisfied with the qualities
that petrol and diesel cars give us, we are likely to face
the biggest challenge right here - the moon landing if
you will.
The only fly in the ointment
In spite of the challenges we face, it is certainly not
impossible to envision a scenario in which our cars
do not have to be the environmental problem they
currently are. High Activity is possible. Two other
transportation areas are perhaps more formidable:
shipping and aviation. As the scenarios in this report
indicate, we can assume that freight transport energy
usage will continue to go through the roof until 2050,
since we cannot depend on 50-tonne battery-powered
trucks. Meanwhile, many efficiency improvements in
logistics and engine technology have already been taken
out of the equation because of the tough competition
in the industry. We will have to look into reducing the
volume of transportation and transferring freight from
roads to sea and rail.
Flights are also – and literally - skyrocketing. We
are increasingly travelling by air, especially on long
flights abroad (which are not included in the scenario
calculations in this report). We may need to shift towards
vacationing closer to home while we wait for a battery
pack that can power a 400-tonne jumbo jet.