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Position Paper: CenSES Energy demand projections towards 2050
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5. Total energy consumption
5.1. Final energy consumption
With the assumptions presented in this paper, the
energy service demand for stationary use increase by
11% in the reference path from 2010 to 2050 and the
energy consumption increase in the same period with
8%, see Table 9. The transportation demand increase
substantially but due to particularly more efficient
technologies, the increase of energy consumption of
transportation is less. For example is the demand for
travelled distance by passenger cars 53% higher in
2050 compared to 2010, but the energy consumption is
reduced by 33% due to more efficient cars.
While electricity consumption the last 15 years has
been at the same level, use of petroleum products has
increased, due to increased transportation. Our analyses
show that the trend of increased use of oil products
will not continue, despite a very strong increase in
transportation demand. With the assumptions used,
the increase in total energy use will be met by an
increased use of biomass and electricity. The increased
electricity consumption of the reference path is almost
the same as in the path of the National Budget of 2011
[2] an increase from 2010 to 2030 of 15 and 13 TWh
respectively.
In the scenario with a possibility to invest in energy
efficiency measures, the increase in total energy use is
decreased to only 5% more than the use of 2010. With
a high activity in industry, the final energy use increase
by 19% at the same time as the electricity consumption
increase by 33%. The opposite is noted in the scenario
with a low industrial activity; final energy use and
electricity use decrease by 8-10%. This means that the
activity level in industry has large impact on both total
energy and electricity use.
In order to illustrate possible outcome of future energy
consumption, different population projections [5] are
combined with the high and low activity scenarios of
industry. The low scenario of Figure 21 and Figure 22
is a combination of the low population projection of
Statistics Norway 2012 (LLML) with the Low activity
scenario earlier described. The high scenario of Figure 21
and Figure 22 is a combination of the high population
projection of Statistics Norway 2012 (HHMH) and the
High activity scenario of this paper. The high population
projection increases the energy consumption of
buildings in 2050 with about 25 TWh more than the
reference path, while the high industrial activity increase
the use by approximately 17 TWh. The low population
projection decreases the energy consumption of
buildings with about 13 TWh in 2050 compared to
a decrease of industry energy use of 15 TWh due to
reduced activity (excl. energy efficiency measures). Final
energy consumption increased by 31 TWh the last 24
years [14] and is calculated to increase by 29 TWh the
next 25 years. The electricity consumption of Figure
22 includes use in district heating plants, but doesn’t
include grid losses. Grid losses are calculated to 13 TWh
in 2050 in the reference path.
5.2. Electricity production
The hydro power production increases in the reference
path by 33 TWh towards 2050, while wind power
production increases by 9 TWh in 2020-2030 and is
back at the present level in 2050. The investments in
wind power are done during the period with electricity
certificates. The net electricity trade increases to 19
TWh in 2030 and is calculated to 14 TWh in 2050 in the
reference path. The wind power production increases
with higher electricity trading prices as in the LOW
activity scenario. If the discount rate is increased
from the 4% used in these analyses, the wind power
production decrease.
The net power trade is strongly dependent on the
exogenously given trading prices. In the LOW activity
scenario the trading prices are the highest at the same
time as the Norwegian electricity use is at the lowest,
and therefore the net trade is highest in this scenario.
But even in the HIGH activity scenario with a substantial
increase in Norwegian industrial activity, the Norwegian
power production is high enough to supply the
demand.