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Position Paper: CenSES Energy demand projections towards 2050
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Assumption uncertainties
Data assumptions, e.g. the development of new
technologies, are uncertain both with respect to
investment cost, to efficiencies and to the time horizon
for the development. One example of consequences of
data uncertainties is the investment of wind power in
the reference path. We observe that we will get no re-
investment in wind power when the technical life time
of the power plant is exceeded. This means that onshore
wind power is only profitable as long as the electricity
certificate market is in operation. How the investment
cost will develop for new wind farms compared to the
re-investment to replace existing wind farms is however
uncertain. The investment cost will be somewhat lower,
though more important are barriers related to e.g.
license, grid connection and public engagement which
is already handled. This kind of barriers is not part of the
analysis.
Another example is the future development in vehicle
technologies and production of new transportation
fuels. Over the last decade there has been a gradually
improvement of vehicle efficiencies, and a continued
gradual improvement in the future is anticipated.
Important uncertainties in the transport sector with a
great impact on the analyses are among others:
• What will the maximum share of vehicles that can be
battery electric vehicles be?
• When will 2nd generation bio fuels based on waste
from forest be available?
• How will the cost of building new refueling
infrastructure for road transport develop?
If production of sustainable bio fuels for transport is
delayed, or not available in the analyzing period, there
will be an increased use of petroleum based fuels, in
hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles.
How climate change will impact the energy system
is uncertain, however there will be an impact on
both future energy production and energy demand.
Increased hydro production, due to increased
precipitation is partly taken into account in the analysis
as the hydro production in a normal year has increased.
Future increase in hydro power production is not
included, neither is reduced energy demand due to
increased average temperature included. (According
to previous work [17], the future heating demand in
buildings can be reduced by approximately 15% in 2050
compared to a development without climate change.)
Model imperfections
In this work the energy system model TIMES-Norway is
used to analyse the future energy consumption. TIMES
assumes perfect competition and perfect foresight, and
the model aims to supply energy services at minimum
cost, thus the model will utilize the whole potential of
the low-cost options with respect to technology and
energy carrier. This may result in too high utilization of
certain technologies, while the actual technology mix
is more diversified. TIMES-Norway depends on various
assumptions, ranging from technology development, to
energy prices and population projections. A huge effort
to improve input assumption has been done, however
considerable uncertainty exists in the development
towards 2050. The use of sensitivity analysis for selected
parameters contributes to an increased understanding
of the robustness of the analysis results.
The demand for energy is dependent on people’s
behaviour. Examples are in choice of vehicle, as small
or large vehicles have a huge impact of the vehicle
efficiency and in shift from use of private car to public
transport, walking or cycling. This kind of behavioural
aspects is not included in TIMES-Norway, however it is
an important area of future energy use that has to be
analysed beyond the work presented here.
Concluding remarks
Some of the analysed uncertainties are compared in
Figure 27 as changes compared to the reference path
in 2050. The activity level of Norwegian industry as
described in the LOW and HIGH activity scenarios results
in a variation from -15 TWh to +17 TWh in 2050. If the
population projection follows the high or low path of
Statistics Norway [5], the energy use of the building
sector increase by about 25 TWh or decrease with about
13 TWh, an outcome difference of 39 TWh. Another
development of huge impact is if the transportation
demand increase as much as described in the National
Transport Plan [18] or if it can be reduced to the same
growth as the population (“lower transportation” in
Figure 27). The energy demand for transport also
decreases; however to a smaller degree, if there is
no restriction on the use of battery electric vehicles.
Increased building regulation requirements may have
an important impact on the future energy demand. If
the heating demand is restricted to 15 kWh/m² for space
heating in new buildings from 2020, in accordance
with the passive house requirements, the energy use
of buildings can be reduced by about 9 TWh in 2050,