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Position paper - CenSES 1/2015
of buildings can be reduced by about 9 TWh in 2050, compared to the development in the
passive house” in Figure 27).
the analysed scenarios points at some interesting pathways of Norwegian energy use. In the low
the Norwegian industry will be less important from an energy point of view and Norway will be
of clean, renewable energy to Europe. The net electricity export in the low activity scenario is
re than 60 TWh in 2030, compared to the high export year 2012 of 18 TWh, and this could be
ars with high precipitation. Another example of Norway as a commodity exporter is the export
as increased considerable due to the closing down of many pulp and paper plants and if no
egian use is developed, this effect will be enforced in the low activity scenario.
the result of the high activity scenario, where the electricity export is low and the Norwegian
gnificant growth. A combination of implementation of energy efficiency measures, improved
nd a higher Norwegian industry activity, will make it possible to combine a high national activity
ant contribution to balancing intermittent power production in Europe through power
ong business policies with stable framework conditions will probably be necessary to develop
try along the high activity pathway. If energy efficiency measures are implemented along with
ities such as energy labelling, building regulations, energy monitoring including advanced
control systems, the Norwegian energy use can be efficient yet on a high activity level, letting
balancing partner of European power production.
a common interest for energy demand projections has been identified, and the common
orway, presented in this paper, is meant to form a basis for new analysis and studies. The
available in the project report [4]. Even though the future is unsure, and despite the many
the assumptions, the presented reference path for energy demand towards 2050, and the
rios, represent a possible range for development of future energy demand.
on of the impact of some assumptions compared to the energy use of 250 TWh in the reference path in
Figure 27
Illustration of the impact of some assumptions compared to the energy use of
250 TWh in the reference path in 2050 (TWh/year)
compared to the development in the reference path
(“passive house” in Figure 27).
The outcome of the analysed scenarios points at some
interesting pathways of No wegian energy use. In
the low activity scenario the Norwegian industry will
be less important from an energy point of view and
Norway will be a major exporter of clean, renewable
energy to Europe. The net electricity export in the low
activity scenario is calculated to more than 60 TWh
in 2030, compared to the high export year 2012 of
18 TWh, and this could be e en high r in years with
high precipitation. Another example of Norway as a
commodity exporter is the export of timber that has
increased considerable due to the closing down of many
pulp and paper plants and if no alternative Norwegian
use is developed, this effect will be enforced in the low
activity sc nario.
The opposite is the result of the high activity scenario,
where the electricity export is low and the Norwegian
industry has a significant growth. A combination
of implementation of energy efficiency measures,
improved transportation and a higher Norwegian
industry activity, will make it possible to combine a
high national activity with an important contribution
to balancing intermittent power production in Europe
through power connections. Strong business policies
wi h stable framework conditions will probably be
necessary to develop Norwegian industry along the
high activity pathway. If energy efficiency measures
are implemented along with promoting activities
such as energy labelling, building regulations, energy
monitoring including advanced monitoring and control
systems, the Norwegian energy use can be efficient
yet on a h gh activity level, letting Norway act as a
balancing partner of European power production.
Within CenSES a common interest for energy demand
projections has been identified, and the common
projection for Norway, presented in this paper, is
meant to form a basis for new analysis an studies.
The assumptions are available in the project report
[4]. Even though the future is unsure, and despite the
many uncertainties in the assumptions, the presented
reference path for energy demand towards 2050, and
the alternative scenarios, represent a possible range for
development of future energy demand.