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Position Paper: CenSES Energy demand projections towards 2050
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Position Paper: CenSES Energy demand projections towards 2050
ssion
resents a possible energy demand projection and do not have the objective to predict the future
The need of energy demand projections among CenSES user and research partners initiated the
st public energy demand projection is almost 10 years old, while later governmental energy demand
are concealed in other foresight documents. Some data on electricity forecasts are available, but no
l or useful energy demand and most assumptions are not openly accessible. The lack of an official
nergy demand projection with a transparent view of assumptions made it desirable to develop this
rojection was developed during the work with “Perspektivmeldingen 2013”, but it is not public
he electricity consumption of power intensive industry is explained to be unchanged, which is in
with our reference path [15]. “Energiutredningen” includes a projection of electricity production and
n towards 2030 [16]. The use of electricity was calculated to increase by 13 TWh from 2010 to 2030
ence path, by 27 TWh in the “expansive scenario” and by 14 TWh in the “tight scenario” [17]. The
pected in general consumption, while power intensive industry is assumed to be unchanged. The
vailable energy projection was presented in 2006 in the White Paper “A climate-friendly Norway”
he total energy consumption was calculated to increase from 229 TWh in 2000 to 333 TWh in 2050
ctricity consumption was calculated to increase from 126 TWh in 2000 to 197 TWh in 2050. The
s of future electricity production have been dramatically changed from the expected need of 59 TWh
n 2050 in the 2006-projection to the present expectations of a power surplus by many actors. The
ble projections have all a higher growth than the CenSES Reference path, see Figure 25.
this paper is developed through several workshop discussions with CenSES partners interested in
e analyses are carried out by IFE and narrative stories underpinning the projections are written by
other CenSES research partners.
any uncertainties related to development of an energy projection towards 2050. Some are addressed
r, partly as alternative scenarios, but many others have to be studied in succeeding work. Five
e analysed (REFerence, REF-EE with Energy Efficiency-measures, LOW industry activity, HIGH industry
FROZEN). They represent varying inclusion of explicit energy efficiency measures, external given
s and level of industry activities, see Figure 26. Uncertainties of great importance are related to data
s, scenario definitions and model imperfections and some of these are addressed here.
SES Reference path and REF-EE compared with official projections; total energy consumption and final
sumption (TWh/year)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000
2025
2050
Energy use (TWh/year)
Year
Total NOU 2006:18
Total CenSES REF
Total CenSES REF-EE
El. NOU 2006:18
El. NOU 2012:9
El. CenSES REF
El. CenSES REF-EE
6. Discussion
This paper presents a possible energy demand
projection and do not have the objective to predict
the future energy use. The need of energy demand
projections among CenSES user and research
partners initiated the work. The last public energy
demand projection is almost 10 years old, while
later governm ntal nergy demand projections are
conc aled in other foresight documents. Some data on
el ctricity f r asts are av ilable, but o data total
or useful energy demand and most assumptions are
not openly accessible. The lack of an official Norwegian
energy demand projection with a transparent view
of assumptions made it desirable to develop this
projection.
An energy projection was developed during the
work with “Perspektivmeldingen 2013”, but it is not
public available. The electricity consumption of power
intensive industry is explain to be unchanged,
which is in accordance wit our r f rence p th [15].
“Energiutredning n” includes a oj ction of electricity
production and consumption towards 2030 [16].
The use of electricity was calculated to increase by
13 TWh from 2010 to 2030 in the reference path, by
27 TWh in the “expansive scenario” and by 14 TWh
in the “tight scenario” [2]. The growth is expected in
general consumption, while power intensive industry
is assumed to be unchanged. The last public available
energy projection was presented in 2006 in the White
Paper “A climate-friendly Norway” [1]. Here, the total
energy consumption was calculated to increase from
229 TWh in 2000 to 333 TWh in 2050 and the electricity
consumption was calculated to increase from 126 TWh
in 2000 to 197 TWh in 2050. The expectations of future
electricity production have been dramatically changed
from th exp cted ne d of 59 TWh gas power in 2050
in the 2006-proj ction to the present expectations of
a power surplus by many act rs. The public available
projections have all a high r growth than the CenSES
Reference path, see Figure 25.
The work in this paper is developed through several
workshop discussions with CenSES partners interested
in the area. The analyses are carried out by IFE and
narrative stories underpinning the projections are
written by some of the other CenSES research partners.
There are many uncertainties related to development of
an energy projection towards 2050. Some are addressed
in this paper, partly as alternative scenarios, but many
th r have to be studied in succe ding work. Five
scen rio are analysed (REFerence, REF-EE with Energy
Efficiency-measures, LOW industry activity, HIGH
industry activity and FROZEN). They represent varying
inclusion of explicit energy efficiency measures, external
given energy prices and level of industry activities, see
Figure 26. Uncertainties of great importance are related
to data assumptions, scenario definitions and model
imperfections and some of these are addressed here.
Figure 25
CenSES Reference path and REF-EE compared with official projections; total energy
consumption and final electri ity consumption (TWh/year)