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Position Paper: CenSES Energy demand projections towards 2050
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“This high activity scenario is a low-energy scenario for cars”
by Erling Holden, Sogn og Fjordane University College
A renewable and carbon-neutral car culture is
possible...
For passenger car travel, the High Activity Scenario
(hereafter called “High Activity”) is a low-energy
scenario. The current energy use of 21 TWh has fallen to
10 TWh in 2050, i.e. a reduction of 11 TWh or 52%. This
development is a dramatic break from the gradual - and
at times strong - growth in energy use for passenger
transport that we’ve seen since the first cars came on
the road around 100 years ago. High Activity is also
a renewable-energy scenario where today’s petrol
and diesel vehicles are replaced with mainly battery-
powered electric vehicles (or “EVs”) and vehicles that use
biodiesel fuel (or “biodiesel”).
Under the right conditions, renewable energy sources
produce the fuel for these cars. And not only that, but
let’s also imagine that the production and use of these
fuels takes place entirely without greenhouse gas
emissions. High Activity thus shows a possible future
in which our cars cut today’s energy consumption by
half, use only renewable-energy sources and do not
contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. All this without
the need to think about travelling less, or using more
public transportation. It doesn’t get better than that!
The reality is that some fossil fuels will likely remain in
use in 2050. This means that we should still expect some
greenhouse gas emissions from cars a few decades
from now. With the goal of reducing greenhouse gas
emissions by 80% or more, for example, a technology-
based scenario like High Activity can do half the job. Less
travel, more cycling and walking, and increased use of
public transport will do the rest.
… but there are a lot of hurdles to overcome
All in all, the news is good. But we need to look more
closely at whether the “right conditions” are realistic. Is it
true that EVs and biodiesel cars are carbon neutral?
Let’s start with electric cars. The question is whether the
electricity that powers EVs is carbon-neutral or not, and
the discussion is wide-ranging and at times quite
heated. It is also difficult to get a good grasp of. Some
people argue that since Norway generates electricity
from hydropower, the EV is an excellent climate choice.
(Does this mean that we should avoid EVs in coal-
powered Denmark?). Others argue that the electric
power that goes to EVs could instead replace marginal
fuels in Europe (currently coal), which suggests a terrible
climate cost for EVs. In between are those who claim that
the electricity in an increasingly integrated European
power market should be calculated from the overall mix
of power production in Europe. Depending on whom
you listen to, the electric car is a good, terrible or so-so
climate strategy.
Today’s electric cars can reduce emissions by 30%,
if they replace a gasoline or diesel car (an important
and not entirely unproblematic assumption). If all of
European electricity production gradually becomes
based on renewable energy, or if we somehow manage
to successfully capture and store the CO2 from power
plants, emissions could be reduced by 100%. This
scenario certainly suggests a brighter future than the
continued use of petrol and diesel, even if it is wishful
thinking.
So, what about biodiesel? Today, so-called first-
generation biodiesel is used, which includes canola,
soybean, sunflower, coconut, or palm oil as raw
materials. Fat from animals or fish may also be used. A
wide range of life-cycle analyses shows that the use of
these raw materials only slightly reduces greenhouse
gas emissions when compared to petrol and diesel cars.
Under particularly unfortunate circumstances, biodiesel
emissions can actually even be greater! In addition, it is
troubling to produce fuel from raw materials that could
instead be used for food in a world where many people
are still dying of starvation.
Second- and third-generation biofuels (including
biodiesel) that use wood and algae as raw materials are
being developed as alternatives. Using these resources
can contribute to significant reductions in greenhouse
gas emissions, without competing with food production.
Although we have a way to go to develop these fuels,
possibilities do exist for a climate-neutral fuel.
4.4.3. Story – Transport