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Position paper - CenSES 1/2015
osition Paper: CenSES Energy demand projections towards 2050
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cenarios
n the REFerence path, energy efficiency is included through renovation of buildings and improved efficiencies
f end-use demand, but investments in other energy efficiency measures like heat recovery, improved processes,
ehavioural measures etc. are included in the alternative scenario REF-EE. This is done to analyse the impact of
fficiency measures, and to shed light on challenges related to energy efficiency.
he efficiency measures are profitable; however all the measures are not actually implemented. Behavioural
spects and barriers related to implementation of efficiency measures have not been included in the analysis.
art of the energy efficiency potential will probably be implemented with the present policies, resulting in a
eference path between REF and REF-EE in the analyses presented. Further implementation of efficiency
easures will require an increased focus, and political efforts such as explicit targets of energy efficiency can be
ne way to increase energy efficiency. If all profitable energy efficiency measures are implemented in both
ndustry and buildings, the energy use will decrease enough to cover the increased demand of the high industry
ctivity scenario or the high population growth.
rices for energy carriers being imported to and exported from Norway is an important factor in the analysis,
specially the electricity import/export price, as this have a huge impact on the net power trade. In all scenarios,
ut LOW, the electricity import and export price is constant in the period 2016-2050.
n the LOW scenario with higher import and export prices, the net power trade is highest, due to decreased
omestic energy demand as well as increased power production. Instead of increased electricity export, it is
ossible to increase domestic electricity use. In the HIGH activity scenario, the electricity demand in industry and
ransport increases. This higher activity level is possible without being dependent on a net import of electricity.
roduction of hydrogen by electrolysis is another example of how to utilize excess electricity that might be
nteresting if the technology development becomes a success, but this has not been included in this work. Also
lectricity in buildings has a potential to grow, beyond the growth observed in the reference path, if restrictions
n electricity for heating is removed. The new building regulation proposition opens for increased use of
lectricity for heating, but this is not included in the analyses carried out in this paper. Analysis results show an
xcess of electricity in most scenarios that can be used for more electricity for heating but then also the power
rofile should be studied.
igure 26 Main parameters of the five scenarios analysed (light blue were nothing is changed compared to the REFerence
cenario; EE = energy efficiency measures included)
Scenarios
In the REFerence path, energy efficiency is included
through renovation of buildings and improved
efficiencies of end-use demand, but investments in
other energy efficiency measures like heat recovery,
improved processes, behavioural measures etc. are
ncluded in the alternative scenario REF-EE. This is done
to analyse the impact of efficiency measures, and to
shed light on challenges related to energy efficiency.
The efficiency measur s are profitabl ; how ver all the
measures are not actually implemented. Behavioural
aspects and barriers related to implementation of
efficiency measures have not been included in the
analysis. Part of the energy efficiency potential will
probably be implem nt with the present policies,
resulti g in a r f enc path between REF nd REF-EE
in the analyses presented. Further implementation
of efficiency measures will require an increased
focus, and political efforts such as explicit targets of
energy efficiency can be one way to increase nergy
effici ncy. If all profitable energy effi ien y me sures
are implemented in both industry and buildings, the
energy use will decrease enough to cover the increased
demand of the high industry activity scenario or the
high population growth.
Prices for energy carriers being imported to and
exported from Norway is an important factor in the
analysis, especially the electricity import/export price,
as this have a huge impact on the net power trade. In
all scenarios, but LOW, the electricity import and export
price is constant in the period 2016-2050.
In the LOW scenario with higher import and export
prices, the net power trade is highest, due to decreased
domestic energy demand as well as increased power
production. Instead of increased electricity export, it is
possible to increase domestic electricity use. In the HIGH
activity scenario, the electricity demand in industry and
transport increases. This higher activity level is possible
without being dependent on a net import of electricity.
Production of hydrog n by electrolysis is another
exa ple of how to utiliz excess electricity that might
be interesting if the technology development becomes
a success, but this has not been included in this work.
Also electricity in buildings has a potential to grow,
beyond the growth observed in the reference path, if
restrictions on electricity for heating is removed. The
new building regulation proposition opens for increased
use of electricity for heating, but this is not included in
the analyses carried out in this paper. Analysis results
show a excess of electricity in most scenarios that can
be us d for mor elec ricity for heating but then also the
power profile shoul be studied.
Figure 26
Main parameters of the five scenarios analysed (light blue were nothing is changed compared to the REFerence
scenario; EE = energy efficiency measures included)