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• ANNUAL REPORT 2015
Allision risk models for harsh environments
A lot of current research is looking at collisions between
ships, from structural analysis of the effects of various
impacts on a ship’s hull to complex traffic models trying
to estimate the risk of collision between ships in various
situations and areas.
However, very little research is looking at more specialized
cases such as allision. An allision is an impact between a
ship and a stationary object. PhD candidate Martin Hassel is
looking specifically at impacts between ships and offshore
(petroleum) installations. There have been a few incidents
worldwide, along with a few near-misses, but documenta-
tion and data are notoriously difficult to obtain.
Hassel’s allision risk model aims to become the industry
standard allision risk tool for the Norwegian Continental
Shelf (NCS). It incorporates a wide array of risk influen
cing factors using a Bayesian network (BBN). The BBN is
primarily made up of three components: the ship traffic
patterns; the platform response to a ship on collision
course and the ship’s own ability to avoid an impact with a
stationary petroleum installation in its path.
Work continues on developing a new allision risk model
primarily designed for the offshore industry on the NCS. A
workshop with subject matter experts was held in February
2016, and an article about the development and finalization
of the model is in progress. The article will be a follow-up
to the article describing the model architecture that was
submitted to the journal Safety Science in December 2015.
Figure WP5_4 Bayesian network of allision model.