23 / 56
23
CenSES annual report 2015
Zero-Emission platform (ZEP)
After previously modelling the lowest-cost route for
decarbonising Europe’s power sector, ZEP has in this report
turned its attention to the industry. With direct industry-
related emissions accounting for a quarter of EU’s total CO2
emissions, it is clear that Europe must look beyond the power
sector and likewise include core industries such as refining,
steel and cement. CCS is the only option for substantially
reducing CO2 emissions in these industries. Also the costs of
CO2 transport and storage,10-30% of the total CCS costs, can
be significantly reduced by clustering power and industrial
emitters. Power production alone accounts for a third of
Europe’s GHG emissions, with a single power plant emitting
~1-5 million tonnes of CO2 every year.
In order to realistically study the development of the power
system, including the effect of intermittent renewable
power production and deployment of storage, the EMPIRE
model corporates both strategic and operational decisions
andcosts . The developed model has the following key
features illustrated: (See table 2).
1. Costs of investment in new generation capacity in each
node and year
2. Costs of investment in new storage capacity, divided into
power and energy.
3. Operative costs of generation including the cost of
running generators, emitting CO2 as well as capturing and
transporting the CO2
4. Operative costs due to load shedding.
The reports key conclusions were:
• Energy-intensive industries account for a quarter of EU CO2
emissions and cannot reduce them substantially without
CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS).
• The absence of CCS support measures in the model
(upfront public investment in CO2 transport and storage +
incentives for energy-intensive industries) not only delays
CCS deployment to 2040, but leads to a CO2 reduction of
only 68% by 2050 – well below EU targets of 80-95% for
power and industry.
• Investment inCO2 transport and storage infrastructuremust
start now in order to deploy CCS widely from 2025 – a delay
of even 10 years will cost power and industry an extra €200
billion to reach these EU targets. It will also result in a forced
doubling of the annual CCS deployment rate to 15-20 GW
for power alone which is unrealistic given supply constraints
for the delivery of power plants, CCS infrastructure and the
necessary skills. Hence delaying CCS deployment until 2035,
while possible tomodel, risks severely limiting its optionality.
• When CCS is not part of the portfolio, the cost of reaching
the EU’s CO2 reduction target for power increases by at least
€1-1.2 trillion. The EU’s target for industry, on the other hand,
is not achievable – in any scenario.
Table 2: EMPIRE models the European countries generation capacities and import/export capacities between them.
Table 1: Extra cost of decarbonisation on top of Business as Ususal,
cumulated from 2010 to 2050 (flat electricity consumption).