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CenSES annual report 2015
RA 5 Scenario Development
The main objective of RA 5 is to provide scenario driven
knowledge and analyses to policy- and decision makers to
aid in the development and evaluation of sustainable energy
strategies. RA 5 underwent an update during the mid-term
evaluation of CenSES in 2015. So far the scenario work has
been based on, and integrated with, a number of other
relevant projects. In order to provide additional funding for
the development of the CenSES scenarios, external projects
are necessary. The KPN project “Norwegian Energy Road
Map 2050” (with SINTEF, NTNU and IFE) has been applied for
within the EnergiX program. The application was granted
and the project is expected to be starting up in the first half
of 2016, having a strong collaboration with CenSES RA 5.
Furthermore, the scenario development process within
RA 5 in CenSES was started. On that occasion an internal
workshop was held in March. In conjunction with the
annual CenSES conference in December a meeting with
the CenSES user partners took place in order to ensure their
participation in the scenario development process. A review
of relevant studies and inputs to the scenario work was
done, forming a basis for the development process. Finally,
the NorStrat (Nordic Energy Research) project was finalised,
which provides great value and importance to the scenario
development.
The work of the NTNU Industrial Ecology Programme
(IndEcol) within WP3 of RA 5 in CenSES in 2015 comprised
several kinds of research activities. IndEcol researchers Edgar
Hertwich, Thomas Gibon, Evert Bouman and Anders Arvesen,
partially supported by CenSES, contributed to finalizing the
report “Green Energy Choices” for the UNEP International
Resource Panel . The report presents future-oriented life
cycle assessments of electricity generation technologies, and
of global electricity supply scenarios. Mutually supported
by CenSES and NTNU, Bouman and Arvesen worked on
addressing options to deal with the intermittent energy
supply from renewables in a life-cycle perspective. This
work has led to one published journal article, and several
articles under review. The ongoing PhD research project
of Linda Ellingsen assesses the environmental impacts of
electric vehicles. Stefan Pauliuk and Edgar Hertwich wrote
a book chapter on the use of industrial ecology models in
prospective assessments. Pauliuk presented this work in an
invited plenary talk at the international conference for the
International Society of Industrial Ecology in July 2015. He
also lead-authored a conceptual research article, published
in 2015, on studying the biophysical basis of human societies.
Finally, twoarticles lead-authoredbyArvesenwerepublished
in 2015, presenting a life cycle assessment of electricity
transmission and distribution, and a discussion and critique
of energy indicators used in life cycle assessment.
Within CenSES RA 5 scenario work has been done for the
Zero Emission Platform. It was contributed to the report
“CCS for industry - Modelling the lowest-cost route to
decarbonising Europe”. The objective of the report is to draw
a route of significantly reducing greenhouse gas emission
including the European power and industry sectors. This
work included further development of the EMPIRE model
under RA 2, and scenario analyses within RA 5, comprising
six different scenarios targeting the future deployment of
CCS in Europe.