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CenSES annual report 2014
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RA 5 Scenario Development
The main objective of RA 5 is to provide scenario driven
knowledge and analyses to policy- and decision makers to
aid in the development and evaluation of sustainable energy
strategies. RA 5 has in 2014 focused on analysing scenarios in
projects related to CenSES:
• Energy Modelling Forum (EMF) subgroup 28: Develop-
ment of electricity infrastructure under scenarios for the
EU’s Energy Roadmap 2050
• NORSTRAT (Nordic Energy Research): Four scenarios for
carbon free Nordic power system in 2050
• E-Highway2050 (RTE/ENTOS-E): Five scenarios for devel-
opment of European electricity highways to 2050.
A process with development of a set of common CenSES
scenarios is started. Development of the CenSES scenarios
will be a main activity in 2015, and the work will be based on
the experiences from the scenario work in RA 5 projects up to
now, e.g. the LinkS and the NORSTRAT project.
Several of the CenSES partners (IFE, NTNU IØT, SINTEF T&S,
SINTEF Energy Research) applied for a common KPN scenario
project in 2014: “Norwegian Energy Road Map 2050”. Unfortu-
nately the proposal was rejected by the end of the year.
The RA 5 team has been involved in a number of activities,
workshops and dissemination in 2014. The most relevant
ones are:
• Bjørn Bakken was interviewed by Aftenposten and
Gemini about the Links project (see below).
• NORSTRAT was presented: for Energy Norway on a half-
day seminar in April; on a seminar arranged by Sør-
Trøndelag Fylkeskommune in May; on the ECOS2014
conference in Helsinki in June; on a policy workshop
arranged by European Energy Research Alliance in Brussel
in June and on the CenSES annual conference in
December.
NORSTRAT arranged a workshop with about 15 persons from
Nordic power industries in Helsinki in October.
The LinkS project was formally nalized in 2013, but some
of the work continued in 2014. The Links manager, Bjørn
Bakken, was interviewed by Gemini and Aftenposten. His key
message was based on the results from the “Global 20-20-20”
scenario in LinkS. In this scenario the EU 20-20-20 policies
is extended in time and space and an increasing number of
the world’s regions gradually adopt the EU policies. The main
conclusion from the analysis is that bottom-up, regionally
independent policy measures could yield signi cant climate
NORSTRAT (2011-2015) is a project in the “Sustainable Energy
System 2015” program nanced by Nordic Energy Research.
One of the objectives is to show how a fully integrated Nordic
power system can become carbon neutral and what is pro t-
able in terms of expansion of transmission grids in such a
future.
A scenario methodology is used to analyse the power system
in 2050 by the EMPS model and an investment algorithm is
used for evaluation of pro tability of expansion of transmis-
sion links. The investment algorithm run in a loop with the
EMPS model, and price di erences between nodes in the
EMPS model are compared with annualized costs for expan-
sion of transmission grid capacities.
The drivers “Volume of new RES” and “Integration with the
Continental European system” are used to establish four main
A Nordic power system without emission of GHG
scenarios (see gure 1): Carbon Neutral, Purely RES, European
Battery and European Hub. All fossil production in the Nordic
countries is assumed phased out and the demand is in-
creased to 444 TWh/year (approximately 390 TWh/y in 2012)
in all the scenarios.
In Carbon Neutral and in European Battery ca 140 TWh/y of
new RES production is integrated into the Nordic system, in
Purely RES and in European Hub as much as 240 TWh/y. In
Carbon Neutral and in Purely RES the transmission capacities
between the Nordic region and Continental Europe are kept
at 2012-level.
In European Battery and in European Hub they are increased
according to pro tability criteria. In Purely RES all nuclear
production is assumed to be decommissioned as well. Dis-
tribution of new renewable production is mainly based on
existing projects in 2012.