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CenSES annual report 2015
Work related to the Work Packages in RA 2
The research in RA 2 is ranging from analysis of details in
the energy system or in the electricity market, to analysis
of global energy systems. Research groups from CenSES
have been actively involved in the analysis performed by
the European Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) and in IEAs
Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program (ETSAP).
Research in 2015
In WP1
Modelling of technology learning, energy demand and
energy efficiency
has been related to making a new energy
projection towards 2050, which was finalized in 2015,
and presented in a CenSES Position Paper “CenSES Energy
demand projections towards 2050”. A detailed study has
been performed to be able to develop a baseline projection
(reference path) and alternative scenarios for future energy
demand in Norway. Further work was discussed with user
and research partners at a workshop in combination with
analyses of historical development in energy use and
future scenario analyses. Efforts have been put on how to
incorporate modelling of energy efficiency in the energy
system analyses. A global status review of methodologies
used by other energy modelers has resulted in possible
ideas, but has not yet been crystallized in new projects.
InWP2
Includingnewfunctionality inenergy systemandmarket
models
a variety of energy system and market models have
been used by researchers and PhD-students. The research
has been focused on improvement of the models. The
energy system models TIMES, EMPIRE and MultiMOD, have
been further developed. EMPIRE is a long-term investment
model for energy systems where the impact of short-term
variability on long-term investments in energy production
is included. The model was used for analysis for the Zero
Emission Platform (ZEP). This analysis is described in more
detail in RA 5 scenario analysis.
In WP3
Analysis of European, Norwegian and regional energy
systems
analysis of climate targets and the impact on the
energy system has been performed. For Norway, analysis of
the impacts of prohibiting fossil fuels for heating in buildings
was performed. IFE used the TIMES-Norway to analyze the
consequences of such a ban. In addition to the base scenario,
two policy scenarios were included in this work:
• Scenario 1: For households, the use of fuel oil and kerosene
is prohibited from 2020. For the service sector, fuel oil can
still be used for peak load situations.
• Scenario 2: Total ban of the use of fuel oil and kerosene
from 2020 for all kind of buildings.
RA 2 Energy Systems and Markets
The results from scenario 1 show an increase in the use of
district heating, electricity, ambient heat (for heat pumps)
and pellets for the household sector, while the use of fuel oil
and kerosene is completely phased out by 2020 and almost
completely by 2050 for LPG. According to the model results,
most of the actions take place from 2018 and outwards. For
the service sector, there is still some use of fuel oil for peak
load situations after 2020.
For scenario 2, the use of electricity, district heating and
pellets increases towards 2050 for the service sector. In
addition, the use of fuel oil was phased out completely by
2020. The CO2 emissions eventually become zero as also the
LPG boilers are phased out towards the end of the model
horizon. Differences in total system costs for the two policy
scenarios were also compared with the base scenario. The
results showed an increase in total system costs for both
scenarios, mainly due to additional investment in new
technologies. However, the fuel costs decreased due to the
use of cheaper energy carriers.
In addition the work with making a Position paper on the
common Norwegian-Swedish green electricity certificate
market was initialized, by arranging a workshop where
CenSES research partners presented recent research. The
work with preparing the position paper will continue in
2016.