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conclusion from the analysis is that bottom-up, regionally
independent policy measures could yield signi cant climate
change mitigation results as an alternative to a single global
carbon market. Each region can in principle design and intro-
duce their own policies independently of each other. Provid-
ed these regional policies are su ciently strong and correctly
The results indicate that the fossil production can be phase
out with modest impacts on the transmission grid (the
Carbon Neutral scenario). About 57 GW internal transmission
capacities in the Nordic region and 5 GW capacities between
the Nordic region and Continental Europe are used as
starting point for the analyses (2012 level). The pro table
increases are internally in the Nordic region (GW): Carbon
Neutral: 5, Purely RES: 18.1, European Battery: 10.8 and
European Hub: 18.9. The pro table increases between the
Nordic region and Continental Europe are (GW): European
Battery: 12.2, European Hub: 19.2. Regional and distribution
grids are not included in the analyses.
Figure 1. The NORSTRAT scenarios
Figure 2. Pro table investments in transmission grids
timed, a set of independent regional policies seems to give
almost as large emissions reductions as a global carbon mar-
ket but at a somewhat higher socio-economic cost (10-15 per
cent higher). This may therefore be a feasible approach in the
absence of a single global agreement and should be consid-
ered for future global climate negotiations.
Sysendammen (Photo Vegard Martinsen)