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SAMC
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• ANNUAL REPORT 2013
Climate change and coastal destruction
It is predicted that air and sea temperatures in the Arctic
will change, which will inevitably also change the perma-
frost temperatures. The speed of this change will depend
on factors such as ice content and grain size distribu-
tion of the permafrost soils. In 2013, we have estab-
lished initial models of how permafrost temperatures
at our sites will change with predicted climate models
and in 2014, we will continue our study about how this
changes the stability of our coastlines. We will develop
geothermal models with TEMP/W for the SAMCoT sites:
Vestpynten, Varandey and Baydara based on avail-
able thermistor string measurements and climate data.
These models will be used to study the effect on differ-
ent climate change scenarios. The erosion of coastal
slopes subjected to wave induced erosion and active
layer changes due to front slope sliding/erosion will be
studied with slope stability programmes based on the
predicted temperature changes in the slopes.
Figure 17. Example of concrete after the Borås test (28 cycles)
Photo: Gunther Kassner
Figure 19. Result from stability analysis for slope with active erosion.
Figure 18. Geothermal model at Vestpynten.