Basic HTML Version
CenSES annual report 2013
23
European energy mix in 2050 calculated by EMPS and EMPIRE models
European infrastructure modelling
In the LinkS project we compared two different mod-
els for long-term expansion of the electricity system in
Europe; the new EMPIRE model developed by an on-
going PhD task in LinkS and the existing EMPS model
expanded with a new investment algorithm.
EMPIRE (European Model for Power system Invest-
ments with large shares of Renewable Energy) uses a
perfect foresight linear investment algorithm with a
few thousands of operational situations per year, while
EMPS has a single stage investment algorithm with
a much higher operational detail (19,500 situations
per year). The former thus has a more mathematically
stringent investment algorithm while the latter has
a much better representation of variable renewable
production in Europe.
In the European analyses, the setup of the EMPIRE
model in the different policy scenarios is based on the
following data from GCAM: Demand, CO 2 prices, fuel
prices, fixed O&M costs, generation capacity invest-
ment costs and economic life time for all technologies.
The demand is split to each European country and the
resulting shares of generation technologies are kept
within specific limits. Costs for transmission capacity
investments are European specific figures. Hourly time
series for renewable energy sources (wind and solar)
are calculated for each country based on historical
data. EMPIRE identifies investments in new generation
and transmission capacity in and between the coun-
tries where the profit is highest. EMPS calculates prof-
itable investments in transmission capacities based on
input generation data from EMPIRE.
The figure below shows the expected annual energy
mix for all countries in 2050 after new transmis-
sion capacity is included, for both models EMPS and
EMPIRE. The EMPIRE model finds it optimal to invest
in more transmission capacity than EMPS and thus
has the ability to replace more of the expensive fuel
types in some countries with cheaper ones imported
from other countries. Both models invest in the same
transmission channels, although with some difference
in size.
It is not possible to conclude that one model is more
“correct” that the other since there is no systematic
difference between the results. However, the results
from the EMPIRE model are sensitive to the choice of
statistical data for “free” renewable energy from wind
and solar resources. The results are sufficiently similar
to indicate that either model would be a feasible tool
to use for electricity system expansion planning in a
50-year perspective.