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CenSES annual report 2013
17
Analyzing the effects of global policy on national and
regional energy systems includes establishing a mod-
eling framework to analyze the interaction between
European and Nordic energy systems and global poli-
cies, trends and developments. As part of the Research
Area on Energy System and Markets the impact of an
ambitious GHG (greenhouse gas) emission reduction
scenario on the energy system has been studied on
a global and on a West-European scale by using the
global ETSAP-TIAM model.
The model is suitable to analyse a wide range of
climate scenarios with various targets and burden
sharing regimes. The ETSAP-TIAM model is primarily
used to study the long-term global energy system, it
has a user friendly interface, and it is a suitable model
to analyse different global energy issues in CenSES. A
comparison of model results from GCAM and ETSAP-
TIAM was carried out.
Several meetings and workshops have been arranged
to discuss the development and test a prototype
CenSES energy database. We have initiated discus-
sions with the FME CREE to involve them in a common
work on establishing a national energy technology
database.
This illustrates the aggregated potential of ‘globalizing’
individual regional climate policy efforts, and is a ma-
jor reference for much of the work in LinkS. The Global
20-20-20 scenario resulted in a CO₂-e concentration of
505 ppm by the end of this century at a carbon price
of $300/tCO₂ compared to almost $800/tCO₂ for a
450 ppm scenario, with only a minor increase in total
socio-economic cost.
In-depth studies of the European and Chinese regions
under several global policy scenarios are presented.
On country level, there are faster developments in
Europe than estimated by GCAM, e.g. the growth of
wind and solar energy combined with nuclear decom-
missioning in Germany.
This is caused by the ambitious policies for energy ef-
ficiency, renewable energy and emissions reductions
introduced in the EU and in each country the last few
years. Due to these targeted policies and regulations,
Europe is able to develop its energy system much
faster than estimated by the global model.
Some results are robust across all the scenarios, in
particular the location of cost-optimal investments in
new wind generation and the choice of transmission
corridors to reinforce. France, Great Britain, Italy, Po-
land and Norway are promising places to develop new
wind generation capacity. Investments in renewable
generation should be accompanied by large invest-
ments in transmission capacity from Spain going
north to Germany.
Sysenvatn, Hordaland